Friday, April 17, 2009

Reader Opinion Friday.... Is this Sustainable?

Are you a buyer at these levels and importantly (whether a buyer or seller)... WHY?

Lets hear it....


  1. I wouldn't go long S&P yet... but I am buying up commodity companies. IMO, commodities have been way oversold.

  2. any specific types of commodity co's (oil, precious metals, agriculture)?

  3. I don't see commodity demand, or prices, increasing in any meaningful way unless economic activity does likewise.

    VERY hard to know what exactly to do with one's money at this point...

  4. JPB3- I tend to agree. I don't see the global economy turning around quite so fast, so unless you see a stagflationary environment (I don't), commodities will underperform.

    I think the question comes down to valuation. How bad are things / will they get vs. how much is already priced in.

  5. Overall, the world economy is experiencing a debt deflation mitigated in part by inflationary (and fiscally irresponsible)government policies.

    In the medium term, assets will be hurt and GDP will continue below potential as the unwind continues. However, the irresponsbile actions of govt puts a bid under commodities.

    In the short-run, it is entirely psychology driven. Will global investors being sucked (suckered) into buying assets believing that the bad news is behind us? My answer is no as it will become very clear that US consumers will continue to clean-up their balance sheets.

  6. Unless it goes sideways for a while, it doesn't seem sustainable. I have a feeling that a big dump will come later at a much higher point, though. S&P 500 around 960-1000. Just technical, and I'm a rank amateur still learning.

    About commodities, I agree that global demand is not coming back anytime soon. But the best performing stock I have since mid March is a Russian iron ore company. Up 70%. Go figure.

  7. I'd suggest buying SDS at current levels, also consider SKF or even SRS where they are now. Volatility on these when the whipsaw comes is going to be extreme. I agree with Zero Hedge note that the coming flight out of the underlyings and back to these levered shorts will make previous moves look smallish.

    Fear the equities until you see treasuries bringing decent yields, too much smart money is still buying treasuries despite massive volume of issuance. That isn't a good sign for this rally being sustainable.