Tuesday, April 28, 2009

CSPI Bounces Off Bottom, but Negative for Six Straight Month

I previously detailed that CPI may overstate inflation for an individual who:

  • does not own a home
  • would like to own a home
  • will likely soon buy a home

as it does not include how "affordable" housing has become with the recent price collapse for non-homeowners (full details here, but in a nutshell CSPI replace the 'home owners equivalent rent' figure in the CPI with actual home prices).

Though CPI is fluctuating around zero, the Case Shiller Price Index (CSPI) has been negative for six months now.

In looking at the Composite 10's five year returns (annualized), it is now moving into negative territory and given past corrections, indicates there may still be room for further deterioration.

Source: BLS / S&P