Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Durable Goods Jumps

WSJ reports:

Manufacturers' orders for durable goods jumped 4.9% last month to a seasonally adjusted $168.43 billion, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That was the largest increase since 5.4% in July 2007.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had projected a 3% gain in July orders. Overall durable goods orders for June were revised up, estimated to have declined 1.3% instead of the 2.2% drop previously reported.

As can be seen above, the huge jump came from transportation equipment. Cash for clunkers? Nope. Back to the WSJ:
Transportation-related durables climbed 18.4% in July, the biggest gain since September 2006. Orders for commercial planes soared 107.2%, following a 30% drop the previous month.

Source: Census


  1. You just know I'm gonna go to yoy% changes, right ? Just finished my own refresh but won't get a chance to update them until this weekend on my posting schedule.

    We're still at the bottom of the cliff, crawling along broken and bleeding though not still falling.

    YoY is still run > -20%, depending. Deflating DG or xAC using the PPICPE and taking the 3MoMA it's about -25%. OUCH.

  2. i wouldn't expect anything less!

  3. Thanks for the detail. I was wondering how much of the uptick was due to Cash for Clunkers.

    Year over year shows a slight improvement, as well. July was "only" down 24%, compared to 25% in June and 27% in May.

    Kimberly Amadeo

  4. How come the retail sales numbers reflect a greater impact for Cash For Clunkers, but durable goods makes the program's impact seem negligible. What gives?

  5. great question. it looks like retails sales of autos was $65 billion of $355 billion total in july, but durable goods new orders were only $18.2 billion of $155 billion in july.

    anyone with a clue as to the difference in methodology?

  6. Maybe car parts were ramped up in June to account for the program in July and then not increased as the program is now done? That still doesn't seem to jive, but it was all I could think of.

  7. I think that makes a lot of sense, ZachA, because auto production was also a driver of Q2 GDP.

  8. Ya, I was thinking along the lines of the tail off in July. The program just ended, so I don't see why July part sales wouldn't be up as the program seemed to pick up steam as it went along.

  9. By the way, I referenced your point in my blog post today

    Government Spending Props Up Economy

    I would have been happy to give you credit, but didn't know how. I did link back, though...