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Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Aussie Employment "Surprise" to Upside

Bloomberg details the good:
Australian employers unexpectedly added workers in July, supporting the central bank’s view that the economy is rebounding faster than it predicted six months ago.

The number of people employed rose 32,200 from June, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today. The median estimate of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a decline of 18,000. The jobless rate held at 5.8 percent.

Central bank Governor Glenn Stevens kept the benchmark interest rate at a half-century low of 3 percent this week for a fourth month and said the economy is “stronger than expected a few month ago.” Woolworths Ltd., the nation’s largest retailer, is among companies planning to hire extra workers. Job vacancies dropped in July at a slower pace, a report showed on Aug. 3.
And the bad:
The number of full-time jobs dropped 16,000 in July and part-time employment increased 48,200, today’s report showed.
In aggregate, we see that the number of full time positions has declined year over year for the sixth straight month, BUT the decline looks to have finally slowed...

For now at least. Back to Bloomberg:
“The leading indicators of employment have shown signs of recovery,” Helen Kevans, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Sydney, said ahead of today’s report. “But we’re really interested to see what happens in the second half of the year as the government’s stimulus spending starts to abate.”
And that is the key... what happens after the stimulus?