when the current P/E was between 10.4 and 13.3, the one-year forward return was 7.3 percent. When it was higher, between 16.4 and 18.9, the one-year forward return averaged 11.7 percent. And when the current P/E was above 19, the one-year forward return averaged 10.0 percent.
Monday, November 23, 2015
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
The counter argument to the bear argument can be seen in the chart below which compares the same 15 year historical returns on the x-axis with 30 year forward returns on the y-axis. As outlined in my previous post, returns tend to smooth out over 30 years, thus it matters a lot less what you pay for stocks over 30 years than over 5, 10, or even 15 years because more of the return is composed of fundamentals (i.e. dividends, buybacks, etc...) than multiple expansion / contraction as compared to shorter periods. Thus even extreme valuations have historically delivered 30 year returns I think most investors would find acceptable at the moment.
My take? Right between the two. I am not nearly as scared by current valuations, peak margins, etc.. as bears (especially over longer time frames) and I am not remotely a bull either. That said, I'm also not worried about a short term correction that would likely create a much better buying opportunity in the future.
Monday, November 9, 2015
Ben Carlson of A Wealth of Common Sense blog (and author of a great book by the same name), had a recent post Playing the Probabilities outlining that time has been an investor's best friend (for those investors that have had in some cases quite a bit of time), pointing to the following table.
The worst total return over a 20 year period was 54%. But the worst 30 year total return was 854%.While I certainly agree with everything he outlined, he did ask the following question.
Has anyone figured out a better way of compounding your money in stocks beyond increasing your holding period? Not many.
Simple rules (for more... see Meb Faber's record downloaded white paper):
- If the S&P composite TR is > 10 month moving average, stay in stocks
- If the S&P composite TR is < 10 month moving average, move to bonds (in this case 10 year treasuries)
While there is no free lunch (in this case, an investor gives up some upside over shorter time frames), using these basic momentum rules resulted in no negative returns over any ten year period and actually increased the long-term returns over this 1926-2015 time frame, making time an even better friend for an investor.
Thursday, November 5, 2015
As unnecessary as it may seem, contrarian investment managers need to be even more consultative with their clients than managers more aligned with market sentiment, otherwise clients won't be able to handle the extended periods of relative underperformance a contrarian investor is likely to face from time to time. In the case of GMO, while the long-term performance of many of their strategies is pretty strong (and tend to materially outperform when markets turn), the performance captured by their investor base is typically quite poor.
One example being the GMO Benchmark Free Allocation III, a fund in which the average investor has underperformed the fund by 3-5+% over 3, 5, and 10 years. As a result, despite a 16th percentile Morningstar rank in terms of fund performance over 10 years, investor performance only ranks 74th.
In other words, their investor base historical zigs when they should zag... adding money to the contrarian GMO after markets have tanked (when they should be taking market risk) and piling out of the contrarian GMO after markets perform well (when they should be taking risk off the table). Thus, it was relatively alarming to see that funds flows at GMO have been negative $4.2 billion over the twelve months through 9/30/15, including almost $3 billion of outflows the last two months of the third quarter alone.
How poorly have investors timed GMO? Let's take a look at how well a model doing the exact opposite of GMO flows would have performed going back 20 years.
- If twelve month flows to GMO funds are positive, allocate the next month to stocks (S&P 500)
- If twelve month flows to GMO funds are negative, allocate the next month to bonds (Barclays Agg Bonds)
The result of which is more than 100% of the S&P 500 with almost half the volatility and drawdown.
But what good are strong long-term returns if an investor is unable to capture them?
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Most investors know of the VIX Index, but not as many understand what information the VIX provides an investor. Here is my attempt to provide an initial outline of what it is and why the information embedded within the figure is so powerful.
The CBOE has a white paper that provides a ton of detail into the VIX calculation, but the origin of the index describes what it is at a high level well enough:
In 1993, the Chicago Board Options Exchange® (CBOE®) introduced the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX® Index), which was originally designed to measure the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility implied by at-the-money S&P 100® Index (OEX® Index) option prices. The VIX Index soon became the premier benchmark for U.S. stock market volatility.
Ten years later in 2003, CBOE together with Goldman Sachs, updated the VIX to reflect a new way to measure expected volatility, one that continues to be widely used by financial theorists, risk managers and volatility traders alike. The new VIX is based on the S&P 500® Index (SPXSM), the core index for U.S. equities, and estimates expected volatility by averaging the weighted prices of SPX puts and calls over a wide range of strike prices.In summary... the VIX is a reflection of the market's expectation of future market volatility.
The Math Behind What the VIX Level Means
As Eddy Elfenbein of the great Crossing Wall Street blog outlined back in 2012, you can take the current market's expectation of future market volatility (i.e. the VIX), to determine the expected range of future stock market returns.
Fun fact: Take whatever today's $VIX is. Divide it by 3.46. That's the market's view of the 1 stand dev range +/- for the next 30 days. $$
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) March 7, 2012The 3.46 denominator is simply the square root of 12, which takes the VIX from an annualized figure to a monthly figure given there are 12 months in a year.
You can also vary the blue "confidence bands" in the chart above (in the chart above, the one standard deviation bands "should" capture 68% of outcomes). For example, from statistics we know that 1.96 is the z value of a 95% confidence interval. We can convert this 1.96 level to a monthly value as follows:
1.96 / (square root of 12) = 0.57We can then take that 0.57 value and multiply it by the VIX to determine the bands that (in theory) contain that 95% percent of outcomes. For example, with a VIX of 20, the equation is:
20 x 0.57 = 11.3 or 95% of all outcomes over the next month should be within a +/- 11.3% returnIn reality, the VIX typically overstates the level of market risk and understates the results within the band. As the chart shows below, the confidence bands described by the VIX understate the "capture rate" of the bands, especially at higher confidence levels. In the chart above, one standard deviation bands should capture 68% of outcomes, but instead have captured 85% of outcomes.
Neither of the following conclusions should surprise readers of the blog, but they are:
- Takeaway 1:the VIX has done a great job of predicting the future range of market moves (outlined previously in my post The Case for a Steady Volatility-State Managed Portfolio)
- Takeaway 2: the VIX does typically overstate the future level of volatility (outlined previously in my post The Case for Put Writing / Further Improving PutWrite Performance)
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
Back in August I outlined why I thought the plain-vanilla value premium had been compressed to the point growth had and was likely to continue to outperform in my post Death of (Plain Vanilla) Value - Long Live GARP. This post is meant as a follow up and suggests a few frameworks as to how an investor might allocate based on the given "value of value".
Backdrop: Value of Value Matters
Value historically outperforms growth when stocks making up the value indices are beaten down relative to growth. Thus, it should be no surprise that value materially outperformed following the Internet bubble as value stocks were massively cheap relative to growth stocks (see below). The issue over the last decade plus is that many investors have piled into value ignoring the driver of value's historical outperformance, resulting in a "value discount" that is historically narrow.
The next chart outlines in more detail why the discount matters, with the starting "value discount" on the x-axis and the subsequent 7-year excess return on the y-axis. You can see the linear relationship between the "value of value" and future value excess return to growth. When the discount is high, outperformance of value vs growth is likely. When the discount is low (which happens to be where we currently sit), underperformance of value vs. growth is likely.
Putting the Insight into Action
While there are a multitude of ways this insight can be put to use, below are a few simplistic ways that only require making a reallocation at most quarterly and has been more likely to require a reallocation once every 3-5 years. Note this analysis does have a huge data mining issue as we know in advance that a 25% and 30% value discount are thresholds where growth and value have diverged in the past - though less of an issue today as we are near all-time tight levels. As an aside, as the charts below show it wasn't until the late 1990's that the performance of the Russell 3000 Value and Growth indices diverged. It was only when investors initially flocked to growth (and later value) that we have seen distinct differences in the "value discount" and in subsequent performance.
Model 1: Long-Only
Rules (reallocate the portfolio quarterly - ignores transaction costs):
- If the value discount is narrower than -25% (i.e. growth is cheap), allocate to the Russell 3000 Growth Index
- If the value discount is between -30% and -25%, allocate to the Russell 3000 Index (i.e. don't tilt growth or value)
- If the value discount is wider than -30% (i.e. growth is expensive), allocate to the Russell 3000 Value Index
Model 2: Long-Short
Rules (reallocate the portfolio quarterly - ignores transaction costs):
- If the value discount is narrower than -25% (i.e. growth is cheap), long position in the Russell 3000 Growth Index / short position in the Russell 3000 Value index overlayed on the Russell 3000 Index (i.e. generate alpha on top of the Russell 3000 Index through the long/short)
- If the value discount is between -30% and -25%, allocate to the Russell 3000 Index (i.e. don't tilt growth or value)
- If the value discount is wider than -30% (i.e. growth is expensive), long position in the Russell 3000 Value Index / short position in the Russell 3000 Growth index overlayed on the Russell 3000 Index
Monday, October 19, 2015
I've previously posted my broader thoughts on high yield (that there is typically limited to no benefit vs. a stock / bond allocation), but the below chart provides some additional context I thought worth sharing.
Starting Yield: Anchor and Cap for High Yield Returns
The left hand chart breaks out five year forward returns vs. various starting yield-to-worst "YTW" buckets of the Barclays High Yield index (along with what the average starting yield was for the index within that bucket over the time frame). It should be no surprise that the average starting yield anchors what the return will be (when yields are low, returns are low), while the right hand chart outlines the average underperformance vs. the starting yield has been roughly 2.0-2.5% / year, irrespective of the starting yield (high yield isn't called junk for nothing).
Stocks vs High Yield Performance at Various Yields
Both charts show that equity market performance is highly correlated with the credit premium; when the YTW of high yield bonds is high, it is highly likely that the equity premium is high too - leading to higher equity returns. On the other hand, when yields are low and the credit premium (as well as equity premium) is low, stock and high yield returns are more muted. However, the unlimited potential of stocks vs the capped upside of high yield at low rates has lead to consistent equity outperformance when yields are low, while high yield has performed exceptionally after yields were completely blown out (post the 2008/09 financial crisis).
At the current yield to worst of 7.6% and a spread of almost 6% to treasuries, we should expect returns to be no more than 4.5-5.5% over the next five years. Nothing special for the potential risk, but much better than the sub 5% yield we saw a bit more than a year ago.
Friday, October 2, 2015
The below analysis was purely an accident. I was actually looking into periods the U.S. stock market "suffered" a 10% drawdown for the absolute opposite reason; to show that a buy and hold investor should likely ignore these regularly occurring events. How regular?
The always interesting Ryan Detrick points out:
I looked at every calendar year since 1960 and looked at various correction levels. Turns out 94% of all calendar years see at least a 5% correction, while 53% of all years see a 10% correction. Maybe this recent 12% correction isn’t so alarming?So... what if an investor were to sell-out of their U.S. stock allocation and shift it into bonds whenever one of these standard 10% drawdowns occurred and were only willing to go back into stocks when they once again were within 10% of its all-time high?
- At month-end if the drawdown from its previous peak was less than -10%, bonds (US Agg)
- Otherwise, stocks (S&P 500)
Well going back to 1976 (the inception of the Barclays U.S. Agg bond index), the results were surprising. Almost 100% of the return, about 20% less volatility, and less than half of the drawdown. As interesting is how well it kept up with the stock market in all periods except those that followed severe drawdowns. This is largely due to the rarity of which 10% drawdowns become 30, 40, or even 50% drawdowns, so the strategy was at most times fully invested.
Monday, September 28, 2015
The WSJ blog had a recent article The VIX Market Suggests It’s Not Yet Time to Buy the Dips outlining:
Typically, longer-dated VIX futures are more expensive than VIX futures expiring in the current month, as there’s a greater chance of stock swings over a longer time period. That makes for an upward sloping futures curve.
In times of stress, when investors are very fearful about the stock market over the next few weeks, they bid up the prices of short-dated futures more than the prices of the longer-dated futures. That phenomenon is known as “backwardation,” meaning a downward sloping futures curve.The article itself pointed to the relatively flat term structure (as of Friday), stating that an elevated VIX for the foreseeable future is a potential outcome. I've written in multiple iterations (here and here are two examples), that the VIX does a great job of predicting future levels of volatility AND risk-adjusted returns. What I'll take a look at now is whether the term structure adds additional insight (sneak peak... it just might).
The VIX Term Structure
I went into greater detail in a recent post about the VIX term structure (that was specific to trading VIX futures), where I introduced the VIX/VXV ratio (i.e. the Implied Volatility Term Structure or "IVTS"):
One way to make an allocation is to simply allocate to a long VIX futures position only when they have a tailwind vs. headwind. Simply calculate the term premium (a simple way is to use the VIX/VXV ratio - details of what that is by the great Bill Luby here) to determine contango or backwardation (in this case when the VIX/VXV is less than or greater than 100) and only allocate to UVXY when it's above 100. To put some numbers behind that statement, the average modeled daily performance of UVXY is -1.1% when the ratio is < 100 (2500 trading days) and 5.0% when the ratio > 100 (378 trading days) since 2004.So... in addition to simply looking at the level of the VIX (in this case whether the VIX is greater than 20), we also look at the levels of the IVTS (in this case if it's greater than 100).
The table below outlines the results of next day S&P 500 returns given the level and term structure of the VIX.
- If VIX > 20 and IVTS > 100, go to aggregate bonds
- Otherwise, S&P 500
Monday, September 21, 2015
Back in May, I posted A Guide to Creating Your Own Hedge Fund outlining how the application of momentum to the two worst performing funds within the Morningstar Multialternative category over the previous ten years would have provided an investor with better risk-adjusted returns than the Barclays Hedge Fund index and a lower correlation to equity markets.
Now, I'll share how a similar strategy going back a further ten years would have performed using randomly selected funds from the Morningstar Moderate Allocation / World stock universes. As an aside... this isn't too far removed from how I manage my own retirement money.
- Use the oldest share class within the Morningstar Moderate Allocation or World stock universe (oldest share classes typically have a relatively high fee structure - so I'll deem this conservative)
- Only funds with a track record going back 20 years, the result of which is 69 funds in the Moderate Allocation universe and 44 funds in the World stock universe (this unfortunately adds to the survivorship bias, which makes the below figures a bit less conservative)
- Randomly narrow the universe down to five funds; I used Excel's rand function for each iteration (this makes the results much more conservative in my view)
- If the 9-month return of the fund is > 0, allocate next month to the fund, otherwise to aggregate bonds
- 20% weight to each fund's "path"
- Pick five funds at random (as done with 'random momentum')
- Take the best 3 performing funds over the previous 9-months and if > 0, allocate next month to the fund, otherwise to aggregate bonds
- 1/3rd weight to top 3 at the previous month-end
The below are my first 5 results (random iterations of the 69 funds) vs. an equal weight of all 69 funds with a 20 year track record and the S&P 500.
And the same rules applied to the Morningstar World stock fund universe
Tuesday, September 8, 2015
Jesse Livermore of the always interesting Philosophical Economics outlines the case for writing puts in his recent post The World’s Best Investment For the Next 12 Months. Given this has been an area of focus for me professionally for the better part of the last 5 years (sneak preview... I love the concept), I thought I could add to the conversation. Note that some of the below post duplicates Jesse's efforts, but I would highly recommend reading his piece if you haven't done so.
What is Put Writing?
The CBOE has some great resources on what exactly put writing is here, but in a nutshell:
The CBOE S&P 500® PutWrite Index is a benchmark that measures the performance of a hypothetical portfolio that sells S&P 500® Index put options against collateralized cash reserves held in a money market account.
The historical benefit of put writing has been a long run return close to that of the S&P 500 index, with slight underperformance during bull markets and outperformance during bear markets. The PutWrite index can be thought of as an alternative means of capturing the same equity premium; through premium collection in the case of put writing (i.e. collecting the insurance that others are willing to pay to protect their portfolio) vs. the upside of the equity market.
Of note is the PutWrite index has historically achieved this similar performance with a lower risk profile than the S&P 500 (as defined by both standard deviation and drawdown), the reason being that an investor has the same downside risk (the market), but a PutWrite investor collects a higher level of income (the option premium) vs the lower dividend distributions and the option premium increases as market risk increases (while dividends can decrease), helping cushion losses further.
Improving Upon the Strategy Further - Switching Between Put Writing and the S&P 500
As mentioned above, put writing generally underperforms the S&P 500 during bull markets and outperforms during bear market in part due to cushion the higher option premium provides put writing when market volatility picks up (i.e. insuring against a market downturn is more costly when investors view an increased probability of needing that insurance). As a result, Jesse introduces the following rule:
If the monthly close of the volatility index (VIX), the best proxy for option valuation, is above 20, then for the next month, we’ll invest in the put-write strategy. If the monthly close of the volatility index is below 20, then for the next month, we’ll buy and hold the index.The above rule does improve upon the strategy's absolute return (see "$PUT Switching" in the below chart). YET, that higher return comes at the cost of reduced risk-adjusted returns (higher standard deviation, higher drawdown, and a lower sharpe than the $PUT index itself).
Another Alternative Utilizing a Surprising Characteristic of PutWrite Performance
While I do think the above is an interesting solution, I think it misses one of the surprising characteristics of put writing... its risk-adjusted returns are actually higher when the VIX is lower. As the table outlines below, the absolute returns have indeed been lower when the VIX < 20 (9.2% vs. the 10.6% returns for the S&P 500), the sharpe ratio of the PutWrite index is a whopping 1.20 during these periods (a huge number for a 25 year time frame as any investor can attest). The reason being the level of VIX (or the amount of option premium received) matters less than the premium collected compared to the puts realized payout (i.e. what the insurance is actually paying out). In other words, it is more profitable to insure a good driver at a low insurance premium than a bad driver at a high premium.
If the monthly close of the volatility index (VIX) is above 20, then for the next month invest in the put-write strategy at 67% notional (a 50% reduction) with the balance in 3-month t-bills. If the monthly close of the volatility index is below 20, then for the next month invest in the put-write strategy at 150% notional (a 50% increase) financed at the 3-month t-bill rate.
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
An initial investment of more than $450,000 to the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (UVXY) at the open of its October 4th, 2011 inception date (the split adjusted opening price) would be worth just $87 at today's close (this after a more than 28% gain today and more than 300% gain over the past few weeks). Modeling what the performance would have been going back to the inception of VIX futures in March 2004, a $100 million initial investment would be worth a bit less than $5 today (you read that correctly).
Investors Haven't Fared Better
Given the above performance figures, it should be no surprise that UVXY has eaten a tremendous amount of the capital investors have sunk into it. Since its launch, the ETN has seen net flows in excess of $1.7 billion, while current AUM stood at less than $400 million as of yesterday's close (simple math tells you investors have lost more than $1.3 billion in the strategy since inception). This figure may improve short-term, but I all-but-guarantee it will get worse over the longer term. As an aside... how in the world is UVXY accessible by mom and pop investors who have zero clue how it works.
What is It / Explaining the Underperformance
The ETNs description:
The Ultra Fund seeks daily results that match (before fees and expenses) two times (2x) the daily performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index. The index seeks to offer exposure to market volatility through publicly traded futures markets and is designed to measure the return from a rolling long position in the first and second month VIX futures contracts.To summarize, the ETN provides exposure to a long position in the front two VIX futures contracts at 200% notional (i.e. it is a 2x levered position). If VIX futures simply followed the VIX, UVXY returns would be extremely mean-reverting as the VIX is one of them most mean-reverting figures in all of finance as it cannot go to zero or infinity. But, while VIX futures do typically move in sync with the VIX index over very short periods (i.e. the exposure most investors in UVXY believe they are getting), it does not over long periods of time.
The issue with VIX futures is the term structure, which during calm markets is typically in contango (i.e. VIX futures are priced higher than spot), while during distressed markets is typically in backwardation (i.e. VIX futures are priced lower than spot). UVXY benefits immensely from backwardation because the upward slope of VIX futures owned provides a tailwind to the futures contracts as they approach maturity (while UVXY faces a severe headwind during contango... which is present much more often).
Examples of VIX futures in contango (bad for UVXY) and backwardation (good for UVXY) is shown in the two below charts using data / charting from the especially helpful VIX Central (follow Eli on Twitter).
All that said, there is absolutely a case for going long VIX futures / VIX ETNs. As the last few weeks have shown, there are very few financial instruments that have a correlation near -1.0 to stocks during periods of market distress.
One way to make an allocation is to simply allocate to a long VIX futures position only when they have a tailwind vs. headwind. Simply calculate the term premium (a simple way is to use the VIX/VXV ratio - details of what that is by the great Bill Luby here) to determine contango or backwardation (in this case when the VIX/VXV is less than or greater than 100) and only allocate to UVXY when it's above 100. To put some numbers behind that statement, the average modeled daily performance of UVXY is -1.1% when the ratio is < 100 (2500 trading days) and 5.0% when the ratio > 100 (378 trading days) since 2004.
As an example of putting this to work within a portfolio, below is an allocation to the S&P 500 compared against an allocation to the S&P 500 when the term structure is in contango (bad for UVXY), or a 83% allocation to the S&P 500 / 17% allocation to UVXY (UVXY is ~5-6x more volatile than the S&P 500 over the long-term) when the term structure is in backwardation (i.e. favorable to UVXY).
The above breaks down to annualized returns of 6.9% for the S&P 500 and 12.4% for the hedged version, while standard deviation moves from 19.6% for the S&P 500 down to 15.5% for the hedged version. In addition, max drawdowns moves from 55% down to 29%.
So, while I certainly feel the average retail investor should not be allowed access to something as volatile as UVXY without proof they have a good understanding of the mechanics that drive performance, I do think there is a benefit in using such vehicles for those that understand how they might tame them.
Monday, August 10, 2015
Warren Buffett made news this morning, not just for making the largest acquisition of his career, but for making it at a relatively lofty 22x earnings multiple.
Warren Buffett is paying a hefty price for the biggest acquisition of his career, now that his Berkshire Hathaway Inc has agreed to buy Precision Castparts Corp in a merger valuing the maker of aerospace and other parts at $32.3 billion.As for that valuation...
Buffett, known for buying undervalued and often unloved companies, acknowledged the high price. "In terms of price-earnings multiple going in, this is right there at the top," he told CNBC television.
The Death of the (Plain Vanilla) Value Premium
Which brings me back to a chart from my March post outlining The Disappearing Value Premium since the seminal Fama French white paper.
An equity investment strategy that seeks to combine tenets of both growth investing and value investing to find individual stocks. GARP investors look for companies that are showing consistent earnings growth above broad market levels (a tenet of growth investing) while excluding companies that have very high valuations (value investing).
Wednesday, July 15, 2015
- Daily Mean Reversion: if the previous day was positive, go short; if the previous day was negative, go long
- Daily Momentum: if the previous day was negative, go short; if the previous day was positive, go long
- From 1950 - 2000 (50 years is a HUGE sample size), daily momentum compounded at a 22% annual rate, while daily mean reversion went straight to 0, losing nearly -20% per year.
- Since 2000, daily momentum has lost -18% per year, while daily mean reversion has compounded at a 17% clip.
Monday, July 13, 2015
Following up on my previous post Is there a Relationship Between the Economy and Stock Market?, which outlined the relative performance of the U.S. stock market and underlying U.S. economy over time and market performance during economic expansions / contractions, the below provides further detail into performance of the stock market during periods of improving / declining underlying economic conditions.
GDP Growth and Stock Performance (real-time)
If you had perfect insight into whether underlying U.S. economic growth was improving or declining in real-time (or more realistically a view), then the first chart is interesting. It shows U.S. stocks have historically outperformed when economic growth was picking up (note this is not a measure of expansion vs. contraction, but rather a second derivative outlining whether the growth rate is improving / declining).
GDP Growth and Stock Performance (lagged)
Even without perfect foresight, if you had an opinion about the previous quarter's growth AFTER the quarter ended, the information remains valuable. The chart below outlines stock market performance against one quarter lagged economic growth (for example, if you knew on July 1st that the second quarter had improved from the poor first quarter). Note that the BEA releases quarterly real GDP stats about a month into the following quarter (and that information is revised for years), thus no perfect way to gather this information. Interesting none-the-less if you did have some insight...
GDP Growth and Stock Performance (lagged two quarters)
Economic improvement lagged two quarters actually has an inverse relationship with market performance (i.e. the stock market has underperformed after an improving quarter - two quarters lagged). My guess as to why is two-fold:
- Mean-reversion: following the outperformance during the "real-time" and "lagged" periods, markets takes a relative break
- Public knowledge: at this point the improving economy is well-known, thus individuals have likely over-reacted to it
Source: BEA, Russell