Friday, January 29, 2010

Real (and Nominal) GDP Back to Black

The VERY low nominal growth over the past year is still worrisome, but nice to be back in black.

Source: BEA


  1. Jake forgive me but...pure YoY charts? Aha! Very good - revealing ain't they?

  2. ha... they are now that the "cliff dive over a 3 month period" is rolling off.

  3. Indeed - Bill over at CR did a much better job of calling the turn than I did but he cheated and used experience and a gut check. Barry gave you a nice plug though. :)

    More seriously I actually add to break down and use QtQ annualized to pin down the turning points - welcome to s.t. turbulence.

    But I'm still gonna enjoy the obscure data wonk schadensomething - and you saved me the trouble so I could load up on a whole bunch of other stuff today and merely point at you and CR!

  4. Off topic, but figured you might enjoy this post I came across via Free Exchange. Yes, it has graphs!

    "Removing Oligarchs from Per-Capita GDP"

    Thanks for blogging & congrats that Ritholtz re-posted some of your work (again) on such a hot topic as the GDP release. I rarely comment, but I stop in here every morning. Cheers and thank you!


  5. The release is heartening but we are interested in the real picture. The stimuli might have helped create some artificial demand but time will prove that counter cyclicla measures are going do more harm than good.

    Markets should start correcting and maintain weak bias going ahead. If I am not wrong, the fall from here would be without any meaningful bounce back, whethter it is commodities or equities. Fast ripe, fast rotten.