Posting has been very light the past few days as "the real job beckoned", but getting pumped for tomorrow's GDP release (yes, I get "pumped" for economic releases).
Unfortunately, I haven't had the time to properly break down the components much, so this is purely going out on a limb based on how things seem to be playing out.
I expect a blowout headline figure (expectations are for 4.7%). Lets call it 5.3%.
Does that mean I believe things are improving at a level that rate would indicate? Of course not (though if that is the figure, CNBC talking heads' heads may explode).
My predictions as to the drivers of the print...
- More downward revisions to past quarterly figures, thus my predicted GDP level is not in actuality 5.3% higher than the current (i.e. as of today) Q3 '09 print
- Stimulus induced sectors (think real estate, though autos will be interesting post CFC) making up the majority of the increase with the exception of...
- The MASSIVE impact from the inventory rebuild, which I suspect will be revised down in coming quarters as it is realized that the inventory rebuild wasn't all real
- A VERY low (potentially comically low) GDP deflator, thus nominal GDP won't be nearly as impressive on a relative basis as real GDP
Month over Month Change
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ53m2ibxdw1tg5q8NlDLz8OCKx6oBUMnpK6afiSKbvqGLul2JbFKznGQlvBj1rq4ZN6Zd_lBWuD7i5hOpt-XZvKYZGS_TPV0txrowtvTRtO2OPN-3oZDgxkj8GAt-3vOaa1hC-3PWVA/s800/durgoodsdec.png)
Putting December '09 into longer term perspective...
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVxHW0EANr3FUCadZI-nk4z0gNepjITMUEB3ZHNPkXVVMUWAPAbEd2D4zwGNrYaWaR667peQibWW4un5EhNCgtShn0XKgvAlIlZSDJGLyBimIb0Y0gyCBGe4e8rHwwvw22Q3IQvrU8Jw/s800/duryoy.png)
Unfortunately, longer term there has not been much (any?) strength outside of the war machine.
Source: Census
No comments:
Post a Comment