Friday, October 8, 2010

Employment Bifurcation: Government Down - Private Sector Up

Growth in the private sector wasn't amazing, but there was growth. That growth was dwarfed by state level austerity and the roll-off of census workers.

The AP details:

A wave of government layoffs last month outpaced weak hiring in the private sector, pushing down the nation's payrolls by a net total of 95,000 jobs.

The Labor Department says the unemployment rate held at 9.6 percent. The jobless rate has now topped 9.5 percent for 14 straight months, the longest stretch since the 1930s.

The private sector added 64,000 jobs, the weakest showing since June.

Local governments cut 76,000 jobs last month, most of them in education. That's the largest cut by local governments in 28 years. And, 77,000 temporary census jobs ended in September.
Broader unemployment has reversed course and again heads higher.

The household survey did show some signs of life (for women at least) at the expense of the teen worker, which is becoming extinct.

Source: BLS


  1. Do you believe the BLS with its birth death adjustments or ADP?

    BLS has had to do massive revisions, and tracks ADP closely until recently...

    Or am I missing something

  2. if i were to say one or the other, i'd be more inclined to use the BLS as any economic rebound will likely be off the matrix (i.e. corporate payrolls). that said, i hate the B/D model (i used to post about it regularly... then got sick of it).

    the more important theme is they are both noisy and are both show a lack of rebound. i really don't care whether we added 50k or dropped 50k month to month, when a rebound of 400-500k is what i am looking for before getting excited about the future of the economy.