Thursday, July 16, 2009

Initial Claims: When a 14% Increase = an 8% Drop

Bloomberg reports:

The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since January, depressed by shifts in the timing of auto plant shutdowns.

Initial jobless claims dropped by 47,000 to 522,000, lower than forecast, in the week ended July 11, from a revised 569,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance plunged by a record 642,000, also reflecting seasonal issues surrounding the closures at carmakers.

A Labor analyst said the distortions may play havoc with claims data for another couple of weeks. General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC accelerated shutdowns this year heading into bankruptcy, months before the traditional July closings. Through the gyrations, job losses may subside amid signs the housing and manufacturing slumps are easing.

“The trend seems to be toward lessening job losses even if we allow for the fact there may be distortions because in July you typically get layoffs in the auto sector,” said Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “While fewer people are losing their jobs, it is still as hard as it’s been to find a job.”

Source: DOL


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  2. How do you think this will affect the employment numbers. Number of economists at Merrill state that they think Job losses will decline for July to 305K. They seem to be basing their call on the unemployment claims data. WIll this disconnect in seasonal vs. unseasonal data surprise economists to the downside in the July employment data?