Tuesday, December 30, 2008

The Emerging... 'Emerging Market' Crowd Out

The Financial Times via Naked Capitalism details the issues Emerging Market countries may face

Record volumes of government bonds from the industrialised nations – intended to reverse what could be the worst recession since the Great Depression – threaten to curb access to credit markets by emerging economies.

Analysts warn that emerging market borrowers could be crowded out of the credit markets by $3,000bn of government bonds expected to be issued by the big developed economies in 2009 – three times more than in 2008. The US alone is expected to issue about $2,000bn next year....
How dependent are Emerging Market countries to credit markets? Well, as can be seen below BRIC countries alone have~$3.5 trillion in External Debt Payments to make in 2009.


  1. China's nearly 2.5 Trillion external debt payment is astounding. We hear a lot about China holding US debt. How does their external debt payment compare to external debt holdings and debt receipts (inflow compared to outflow)?

  2. I don't think the $2.5 TR figure for China is correct. Where are you getting this data?

    The CIA world factbook has $360 bn as a figure. SAFE has $392 bn at the end of March 2008.

  3. The FT article linked in my post:

    "Brazil, Russia, India and China face external debt payments of $205bn, $605bn, $257bn and $2,437bn respectively, but can rely on large foreign exchange reserves to help meet bills."

  4. The Chinese statistic is not correct.

  5. Post the correct figure with a "source" link and I will update immediately.