Wednesday, December 24, 2008

A Continued Good Sign in Credit Markets

Swap spreads continue to "normalize". Don't understand and want to? Go here and/or here:


  1. Presumably the improvement in the swap spreads is due to the Fed's various credit facilities, which are essentially life support for the credit markets. What would be a measure of the credit markets' freeing up independent of the activities of the Fed?

    Put another way, what are potential exit strategies for the Fed?

  2. When lending starts to take place to those with good credit, for good projects, without the intervention of the goverment. That is when I will say improvement has occurred. An earlier sign will be when the interest rate of long dated treasuries rise, credit spreads contract, and more importantly when bid/ask spreads contract.

    An exit strategy will be tough depending on:

    * how dependent everyone gets to this form of quasi-socialism
    * how bad the recession gets
    * how bad inflation gets

    No need to determine an exit strategy though when all the issues have really just begun.

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