Thursday, August 27, 2009

Q2 GDP Remains at 1%... Breakdown Shifts

Consumption, Government Spending, and Net Exports were better than first reported, but was offset by a larger decline in Investment. Marketwatch reports:

The economy contracted four quarters in a row for the first time since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Compared with a year ago, real GDP is down 3.9%. The revisions to second-quarter GDP released on Thursday offset each other. The negative 1% growth rate was identical to the government's first estimate released a month ago. The government revises the data as it gets more complete and accurate information.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting GDP to be revised to negative 1.5% annualized.

Source: BEA


  1. Hi Jake,

    Do you have the govt. expenditures breakout for Q2 08 and Q1 09. It would be interesting to see the comparison with Q2 09. I've heard that, without govt expenditures, Q2 09 GDP would be -8%.

  2. As can be seen in the chart, government expenditure made up 1.25% on a stand alone basis. Thus, ignorning government expenditure we get to -2.25% annualized.

    I think the question becomes what would have happened to consumption and investment without the government support of the financial system / stimulus. Not sure how to calculate that...