Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Global Equity Markets Roar...


  1. Please graph the intrade bet on Obama being elected (77% latest)and the S&P500 (800 latest) showing the inverse relationship of the stock market crash with the increased bet on Obama being elected i.e. Stock investors are afraid of Obama being elected...and are getting their money out of the market prior to increased capital gains and increased personal income taxes on the top 5% proposed by Obama. There is a direct inverse correlation between the two graphs.

  2. As Barry has said repeatedly on the subject, you need to review causation vs. correlation...

    In all honesty I can probably graph Obama vs. frozen credit markets, a global recession, the spike and crash in commodities, tension with Iran, the Mets missing the playoffs, my dog getting an ear infection, the Wire wrapping after 5 solid seasons, and my gaining too much weight the past few years too with my darn nice graphing skills, but it doesn't mean there is anything to it.

  3. http://www.nypost.com/seven/10132008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/an_obama_panic__133374.htm

    Sorry this is the link...

  4. http://www.nypost.com/seven/10132008



    Sorry, I had to break the url into 3 parts....since the comments would not take such a long url...

  5. Also an article in Barrons yesterday said "BARACK OBAMA SOARED in the presidential election polls last week, taking a clear lead over his rival John McCain. And stocks had one of their worst weeks ever".....Jake, if you don't want to graph this for political reasons, just say so...I'll respect that....

  6. i think you're missing the point. obama SOARED BECAUSE the economy is tanking. more elections are won and lost due to the economy than anything else. i'd post, but i think it would be misleading.