The index of U.S. leading indicators fell 0.2 percent in June, the second decline in three months, signaling the world’s largest economy will cool.Stripping out interest rate spread and money supply (i.e. Fed controlled items), we have three straight months of decline for all other items.
The decrease in the New York-based Conference Board’s gauge of the prospects for the economy in the next three to six months compares with the median estimate for a 0.3 percent decline in a Bloomberg News survey of economists and follows a 0.5 percent gain in May.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday repeated his forecast for a “moderate” pace of growth even as he said the outlook remains “unusually uncertain.” Recent reports on housing, retail sales and the labor market have pointed to weakness in the economy as the second half begins.
Add caution on the fiscal front (i.e. state austerity measures) and I'm thinking we need some more monetary stimulus pronto...
Source: Conference Board