Bespoke Investment Group (hat tip Abnormal Returns):
S&P 500 stocks have been beating earnings estimates at a much higher rate. Through yesterday, 78.8% of S&P 500 companies had beaten expectations. Interestingly, the high beat rate for the S&P 500 hasn't translated into better stock performance.
Source: S&P
yr-over-yr comparables were too easy. Beware! 2011 will be far harder for the reporting season.
ReplyDeleteWell if I estimate I will make $0 and then get my usual salary I am beating expectations as well by a mile!
ReplyDeleteThe rate at which companies beat earnings estimates has moved up over time. A beat rate between 70% and 80% is no longer a huge surprise. See the graph produced by Bill Hester at Hussman funds:
ReplyDeletehttp://hussmanfunds.com/rsi/beatrate.htm
What makes it important is if the estimates are credible; I think we all saw the big walk down in number estimates last quarter so that beating could continue.
ReplyDeleteagree with all comments. the important thing (to me) is currently not the growth. earnings are already 'relatively' high in terms of level as compared to the price of the equity market (i have past posts showing the current earnings yield of the s&p 500). the important things is if this level is sustainable.
ReplyDeleteso far the economy has proven to be far more resilient than i would have guessed in large part by stimulus (which is fading) and consumer spending (which is not sustainable).
we need one of those (or both) to continues for these earnings to stay outside of some outlier (technology???) event.