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Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Real GDP per Capita Recovery... a Ways to Go

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (via Calculated Risk) relays:

As of the first quarter of 2010, real GDP stands just shy of the 2008 second quarter level, so that growth of about 1.25 percent would be sufficient to allow real GDP to surpass the previous peak. At that point, the U.S. economy would be fully "recovered" from the very sharp downturn of late 2008 and early 2009.
James Bullard believes real GDP should recover this 1.25% by Q3 '10. Unfortunately, real GDP misses a major factor for the individual... the individual. Looking at real GDP on a per capita basis we see real GDP still 2.9% below pre-peak levels. To put this figure in perspective, this is the most real GDP has been below the previous peak (excluding the most recent period) since December 1982.



If the economy were to grow at its 20 year 2.5% real GDP per capita average, we're looking at Q2 '2011 to be "recovered".

Source: BEA