Existing home sales data disappointed, as predicted by Tom Lawler yesterday via Calculated Risk:
When I add everything I have up, and make estimates for areas where I couldn’tActual figures came in below even Tom's low ball estimate at 5.66 million annualized, just about the level seen back in October '02.
find any reliable data, I come up with an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate for existing home sales that is much smaller than I would have expected a few weeks ago – something in the range of 5.83 to 5.84 million, which would translate into an unadjusted YOY sales gain of around 20.5 to 20.6%, and would be a boatload under consensus.
Of course, my regional tracking – which until the last few months has easily produced a better-than-consensus estimate, of late has been low to the downside. More troubling (to me, at least), I’ve had trouble “reconciling” to the NAR data even after getting state/local realtor sales data not available until the day of the existing home sales report (or later in some cases!).
Nevertheless, the “raw” data I’ve seen so far suggests that existing home sales in May will come in well under “consensus” – for reasons that are unclear, and until recently to my surprise.