Confidence Falls
Per Marketwatch:
U.S. consumer sentiment dipped in early March, according to media reports on Friday of the Reuters/University of Michigan index.
Amid signs that the labor market is approaching a trough but remains frail, the consumer sentiment index declined to 72.5 in March from 73.6 in February. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been expecting the sentiment index to hit 74 in March.
Yet, Still Shopping
Retail sales showed strength in February. Per the AP:.
For February, sales rose 0.3 percent, the Commerce Department said Friday. That surpassed expectations that sales would decline 0.2 percent.
The overall gain was held back by a 2 percent decline in auto sales, reflecting in part the recall problems at Toyota. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.8 percent. That was far better than the 0.1 percent increase excluding autos that economists had forecast.
If you're going to stay home (unemployed), perhaps that is cause for the new flat panel TV or laptop?
Calculated Risk does point out that while the trend is improved, the overall level is actual less than what was reported just one month ago:
January was revised down sharply. Jan was originally reported at $355.8 billion, an increase of 0.5% from December.In other words, reports got ahead of themselves (no surprise), but the actual trend remains moving in an upward trajectory even though things quite frankly suck for the average consumer.
February was reported at $355.5 billion - a decline without the revision to January.
Source: Census
Jake, your thoughts on the possibility of a little extra juice from tax refunds skewing the Retail Sales numbers.
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ReplyDeleterodrigo- agreed, but it's not just tax refunds. transfers have made up a huge portion of disposable personal income
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Jake, would you care to comment on how it is that the commerce dept numbers are so different than the Gallup sales numbers updated daily, this link? http://www.gallup.com/poll/112723/gallup-daily-us-consumer-spending.aspx
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