Monday, March 22, 2010

Chicago Fed National Activity Declines in February

Reuters details what the index shows:

Zero values in the index indicate a national economy expanding at historical trends, while negative values indicate below-trend growth and positive values signal growth above trend, the Chicago Fed said. The 85 economic indicators that comprise the Chicago Fed's index are drawn from four categories: production and income; employment, unemployment and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders and inventories. The three-month moving average provides a more consistent picture of national economic growth compared to the more volatile monthly index.
And the three month average fell to -0.64 in February from -0.04 in January (i.e. below trend growth).

Source: Chicago Fed


  1. The double dip was "inconceivable" I thought? I guess that word does not mean what we think it does.

  2. the negative number is slightly misleading. this indicates below trend growth vs. outright contraction.

    not good news for the bulls expecting 5% this year, but i don't see a double dip... yet.