Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Durable Goods and GDP / Equity Market Collapse

There have been a number of things pointed at to explain today's sell-off, one being Goldman Sachs reduced GDP forecast. I personally am in the "nothing can go up forever" / "market is overvalued" camp. BUT, here is Goldman via FT Alphaville regarding today's durable goods release:

Headline gain is in line with consensus and below our figure, but with a composition less dependent on volatile components than some (including us) had expected. Bookings for capital goods recover almost all of past two months’ setbacks. Shipments somewhat weaker, especially for nondefense capital goods, but they will eventually follow orders. Based on these data and other recent reports, we now estimate tomorrow’s GDP to be +2.7% at an annual rate, versus +3.0% previously.
And the details of the new orders portion of durable goods for September...

And year to date 2009 vs. that same time frame from 2008 which shows we can at least always count on the war machine.

So durable goods new orders are down almost 30% over that time frame. Rather than ask why the market is selling off today, shouldn't we be asking why the market is UP over the last 12 months?

Anyone think its "fundamentals" and not the MASSIVE liquidity injected by the Fed and no willingness by economic players [i.e. banks / lendees] to put that liquidity to actual use due to immense imbalances that NEED to play out [indebted consumers, asset writedowns, etc...], thus the liquidity is just sloshing into financial assets?

Source: Census