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Wednesday, July 29, 2009

The New Consumer Confidence Index?

September '08 was Lehman...
March '09 was the market collapse...
The question... what is the concern now????

Source: Google with fixed scaling (via Reddit)

Update: KMH with a great explanation:
I suspect a red herring. Related terms like "Great Depression" are not spiking, whereas they did last year.

My guess: Earlier this month Larry Summers pointed to the fact that the search term "economic depression" had declined in usage as evidence of economic recovery. It wouldn't take a large fraction of curious or vindictive Summers observers googling his favorite search term to generate a spike, especially when "economic depression" is almost certainly not the first term most people would bang into Google during a panic. Perhaps somebody even wrote a bot to do it just to make Summers squirm - genius!

Irrespective of the cause, I wouldn't be surprised if it still turns out to be a great leading indicator...