Tuesday, July 14, 2009

German Investor Confidence "Unexpectedly" Fell

Bloomberg loves the term "unexpected":

German investor confidence unexpectedly fell in July, suggesting the recovery in Europe’s largest economy may take longer to materialize.

The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months ahead, declined to 39.5 from 44.8 in June. Economists expected a gain to 47.8, the median of 36 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey showed.

The government says gross domestic product will plunge 6 percent this year, the most since World War II, even as the economy shows signs of stabilizing after its first-half freefall. Industrial output jumped 3.7 percent in May from April, the biggest gain in almost 16 years, and business confidence increased for a third month in June. The benchmark DAX share index has advanced 30 percent in the past four months.

Source: ZEW.DE


  1. Didn't Germany last week say Confidence was up in record numbers? Schitzo's

  2. Thats a bullish sign
    This could be a V type recovery. Like the 74 type. I dont think we will reach new highs.
    I think the best barometer of a bearmarket is oil around its past highs. The economy just cant handle it at those levels. At the moment theres spare capacity at OPEC and oil is not fundamentally supported at the price levels it is now.
    I think a depression is more likely in a slow way, theres just too much money printing.
    No doubt new lows will be reached, but if you are too underinvested you might be like those people who waited for the depression in 1990 for 10 years.
    The fact is - if a depression were to occur not many people would be seeing it beforehand. At the moment every next door neighbour is saying its the end of the world lol.