Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Durable Goods Jump = Aircraft Spike

As I mentioned via Twitter, Durable Goods jumped unexpectedly due to aircraft orders. The WSJ with the details:

Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased by 1.8% last month to a seasonally adjusted $163.92 billion, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.

Wall Street expected a big decrease. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had projected orders in May would fall 0.8%.



Durable goods less aircraft was flat to April, still above expectations.

Source: Census

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

WSJ reports: "Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose by 4.8%, after decreasing 2.9% in April."

Why the comment "Durable goods less aircraft was flat to April, still above expectations" ?

Is one statement in reference to month-over-month, and the other y-o-y?

NewCreature said...

I wonder who was the big orderer of aircraft that skewed the numbers so much?

My guess is the US Government.

dblwyo said...

Jake - I have DG and xAC both down YoY by ~25%. 3rd derivative may be zeroing out but 2nd is still negative !

Jake said...

Anon- NON-DEFENSE capital goods excluding aircraft rose 4.8%, but OVERALL durable goods were flat after removing aircraft. The difference is defense and non-capital goods.

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending.

dblwyo- how's the 5th derivative looking?

NewCreature said...

Jake said, "The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending."

So, which of the industries you listed is buying aircraft? Crop dusters? Is there a need for aircraft in the mining business? And, I am pretty confident that with airlines hurting as bad as they are, they certainly are cancelling orders, not ordering more.

What am I missing here?

Mike

limo said...

More aircrafts means more jobs

Jake said...

New Creature... aircraft is not included int the capital goods section, thus not a part of those industries (I was just trying to explain to Anon how our #'s were different).

There have actually been quite a few orders for aircraft for commercial use in recent months. Here is just one recent example: http://tinyurl.com/nyloo9

Whether they ever get delivered is another story.

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