Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Personal Consumption Declining for Durable and Non-durables

Calculated Risk touched upon this yesterday:

PCE declined sharply in Q3 and Q4 2008, and rebounded slightly in Q1 2009. Q2 2009 is off to a weak start, with PCE in April below the levels of Q1. Although it is possible that PCE will pick up in May and June, it seems likely that PCE will be negative in Q2 (although not the cliff diving of the 2nd half of 2008).
We can see the broad decline in consumption, Q1's uptick, and the recent reversal in the below chart.

Seasonally Adjusted Year over Year Change


Here's a closer look.

Seasonally Adjusted 3-Month Rolling Change


After the first quarter's rebound, both durable and non-durable purchases have once again turned negative.

Source: BEA