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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Japanese Export Dive or Just a Reversion to Mean Growth?

Bloomberg reports:

Japan’s exports plunged a record 49.4 percent in February as deepening recessions in the U.S. and Europe sapped demand for the country’s cars and electronics. Shipments to the U.S., the country’s biggest market, tumbled an unprecedented 58.4 percent from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. Automobile exports slid 70.9 percent.

The collapse signals gross domestic product may shrink this quarter at a similar pace to the annualized 12.1 percent contraction posted in the previous three months, the sharpest since 1974. Prime Minister Taro Aso is compiling his third stimulus package as companies from Toyota Motor Corp. to Panasonic Corp. fire thousands of workers.

I chose to show it in linear scale because I don't necessarily believe trade is based on compounded growth (such as the case with GDP or equity price levels), BUT I was requested to do so, so here is...

In this case, it appears Japan has in fact reverted well through the long term pattern.
Is it possible this is just the end of the "globalization bubble"?

Source: TSOJ