Thursday, September 25, 2008

Late Leading Indicators (August)

Lets take a look at last week's leading economic indicators in more detail (I was traveling / the world was imploding / you probably missed it).

From the Conference Board:

The leading index decreased again in August, the third decline in the index in the last four months, and it is 2.7 percent below its level one year ago. Building permits, the index of supplier deliveries and initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted) made large negative contributions to the index this month, more than offsetting positive contributions from the interest rate spread and consumer expectations.

Looking longer term, it looks like the only areas of positive contribution over the previous 12 months were money supply (expect this to increase on a going forward basis) and interest rate spread (expect this to increase as well).

I do however, expect consumer expectations, which were positive the past few months, to snap back rather dramatically. And initial claims, new orders, and workweek? Not so much either...