Monday, October 17, 2011

Industrial Production "Inflection" to Lead Equities Higher?

The WSJ reports:

U.S. industrial production grew in September but the gain was small, underscoring the economy's lack of vigor.

Production rose by 0.2%, with a modest gain in manufacturing and a sharp drop in utilities caused by moderating weather. The Federal Reserve report on Monday showed overall production was flat in August, revised down from a previously estimated 0.2% increase.
Manufacturers in the U.S. have been feeling the weight of a lackluster economy, hamstrung by high unemployment. While it is still growing, the factory sector has, with the overall economy, slowed.
While the rebound in industrial production may be lacking the ideal punch, the index (which tends to have a positive relationship with the S&P 500) did turn positive this month on a three year rolling basis.

More interesting (to me) industrial production appears to have led the S&P 500 higher when rolling three year industrial production turned positive (i.e. the "inflection" point). The below chart strips out the S&P 500 rolling returns and replaces it with the three year forward (annualized) performance of the S&P 500 following the inflection point.


  1. Interesting work Jake. Is the auto rebound after disruption making a big difference do you think?

  2. The short-term pop is potentially, but that wouldn't change the absolute level of the index if we were just making up for lost ground.