Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Ten Year Yield Approaching Unprecedented Territory

The chart below shows the ten year Treasury yield over the last 100 years combining monthly data from Irrational Exuberance and daily data from the Federal Reserve once available. 17 more basis points away from the all time low of 1.95 (that was a monthly print... not sure how low it got intra-month).


  1. The great moderation continues. Luckily it does not apply to beer.

  2. A peak in 1921, at just over 5%, followed by two decades of decline.

    A peak in 1981, at three times the level, followed by three decades of decline so far.

    If the length of decline is proportional to the peak rate achieved, we can look forward to three more decades of decline.

    Gonna need a lot of beer.