Wednesday, March 31, 2010

ADP Employment... Not Yet "Back in Black"

Peter Boockvar (via The Big Picture) reported pre-release:

While many are waiting for Friday’s Payroll figure to tell them the state of the US labor market, I’m going to rely on today’s ADP report as a better gauge. That is because it is private sector based and thus won’t be distorted by the likely 100k+ adds of government census workers and the “methodology used to construct it” takes out most of the impact of the Feb snow storms and March snapback. Thus, a cleaner number will result and expectations are +40k, the first positive reading since Jan ‘08.

It turns out that 40,000 was a bit optimistic as ADP showed a contraction of another 23,000 jobs. If these figures are to be believed (we will see "official figures" Friday), then we may have to wait for April for the private sector to stop contracting.

Source: ADP


  1. " If these figures are to be believed (we will see "official figures" Friday)"

    So you think BLS (how about take out the L) number are more "believable"?

    I would think government (propaganda machine) have more on the line to rig the number then ADP... ADP has no purpose to rigged number.

  2. hence why i put official in " ".

    what this is missing is the huge jump we'll see due to census hiring, which should be thought of as another stimulus measure (i.e. not lasting).