Monday, June 22, 2009

Japan Bottoming?

According to Daily FX, Japan's tertiary index:

Evaluates the monthly change in output produced by Japan's service sector. Japan's economy is very export based, because this report excludes manufacturing and only measures service industries catering mainly to domestic needs, the Tertiary Industry Index is a key indicator of domestic activity.
With that in mind, looking over the year to year April figures we see the massive collapse.

Now the good news... April showed a strong rebound in a number of areas, including information and wholesale / retail trade.

According to a Bloomberg piece:
“It’s becoming clearer that the economy has already hit bottom,” said Junko Nishioka, chief Japan economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. “But the rebound will probably be lackluster in the absence of a solid recovery in profits, capital spending and consumption.”
Though yet again, we need to put this all in perspective:
Governor Shirakawa said last week that he’s “cautious” about the economic outlook because the pickup in demand may be temporary. Exports and production, while improving on a month- on-month basis, are about a third lower than last year’s levels.
Source: Meti

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