Friday, February 27, 2009

Historical GDP: "It Was Nice Knowing You U.S. Consumer" Edition

A snapshot at fourth quarter GDP prints going back to 1998. Even in the last recession, consumption added to GDP... not this time. The only real positive... a decline in imports (a positive for net exports), due to you guessed it... the possible death of the U.S. consumer.

Source: BEA


  1. Is the decline in imports a positive? Won't this translate into a decrease in Treasury purchases by China, Japan and the petro-countries, with a corresponding increase in yields. Obama's recent budget assumes a 10 yr note around 2.9%. How realistic is that?

  2. Jake, I can't find your email, so am using the comments.

    Here are some stats on credit growth from Doug Noland that you may find informative. Scroll down to the bottom where the commentary is:

  3. thanks paul- you can email me at though it is typically easier to reach me on the comments board.