Friday, February 20, 2009

CPI (January)


On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.3 percent in January after declining in each of the three previous months. The energy index climbed 1.7 percent in January, its first increase in six months, but it was still 31.4 percent below its July 2008 peak level. Within energy, the gasoline index rose 6.0 percent in January after a 19.3 percent decline in December. However, some energy components continued to decline; the fuel oil index fell 3.7 percent in January and the index for natural gas declined 3.6 percent.

Note: BLS claims 0% CPI year over year, but using their figures and weights, it comes out to 0.4% (used above)... thanks for the great data BLS! And housing up year over year? Give me a break...


  1. Housing is down significantly YOY. Single family is obvious, Multi-Family is down as well.

    I can tell you in NYC rents are dropping fast. It is common to see a 5% cut in rent with 1 month free. That comes out to a 12% discount. It's just the beginning.

    The BLS figures must be based upon the standard econometric models out there. Great during normal times (when you don't even need a model) and basically worthless during times of economic upheaval.

  2. Housing is up because purchasing power is declining, ie it takes more to buy the same house. Banks have increased their lending standards. Purchasing power for housing is down by 1/3 since June 2007.