Friday, May 4, 2012

Ugliest Employment Chart You'll See?

Per Felix Salmon:

As Mike Konczal noted this morning, a key indicator of labor recession is still in force: if you’re unemployed, you’re still more likely to drop out of the labor force entirely than you are to find a job.
Let's see how that trend has fared over the longer term.

The chart below shows the ten year rolling change in the number of individuals employed divided by the ten year rolling change of those individuals no longer in the labor force. Any number over 1 means that the marginal person of working age is more likely to have gotten a job ten years later than to be out of the labor force.

In the late 1980's / mid 1990's, this marginal individual was a whopping 8x more likely to have found a job than no longer be looking. Today? 0.35x, which means that the marginal individual of working age (relative to 2002) is 3x more likely to be out of the labor force, than to have found a job.

Source: BLS