Tuesday, October 11, 2011

It's All About Financials

The chart below compares the absolute return of an investment in the S&P 500 vs. the excess return of an investment in the investment grade financial bond index (as compared to Treasuries) over rolling three-month periods going back 10 years. Note that pre-financial crisis there was a small relationship (even less so the prior decade) with the return streams below showing an r-square from 1988-June 2007 of less than 0.20. Since that time, an investment in the S&P 500 and financial bonds have been remarkably similar in terms of performance with an r-square of 0.56.



Source: Barclays Capital / S&P