I relayed this morning that the unemployment report was:
- Better than expected
- Shows the U.S. has been adding jobs across the board for the first time in years, thus we may finally be hitting a bottom
I initially wasn't going to show the unemployment rate as it continues to be useless (figures for the number of people that have "left" the workforce are still unrealistically high, pushing the rates below where they should be).
As a result, expect the levels to stay range-bound even if employment picks up as those that had "dropped out" of the workforce "come back".
I think you're being optimistic.
ReplyDeleteAs you know, let's just say that there have been ALOT of people who have "dropped out of the labor force:"
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIO?cid=12
my point is not that things are improving... just that things aren't getting worse (whereas the unemployment rate increased).
ReplyDeletemore broadly, the reason is that things were worse than reported before (i.e. official unemployment rates were not high enough), but now that employment (may) be coming off the bottom you will not see it in a change in the rate when it happens.
also to note... as long as the population grows faster than the # employed you will not see it in the employment / population rate. when this rate changes, we'll know that the economy is finally improving (it is slightly better than lows, but not much).