Thursday, February 18, 2010

More on Leading Economic Indicators

dblwyo comments:

Jake - have you got data access to the LEI? I don't but Northern Trust has been
publishing charts for a while showing YoY LEI vs. GDP and those are very good.
LEI per se has not held up well on a MtM basis but the YoY comps show them
shining (and yes the subliminal Nicholson pun is intended).
Thanks to Dr. Donald J Oswald we all have access to LEI data.

While I recognize the LEI has led the recovery (that is the intention as it's "leading"), it has shown far more growth than the actual economy.

Likely because all the stimulus feeds directly into the components of LEI, but have not been reflected in the "actual" economy.

Source: BEA / CSUB.EDU