Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Consumer Confidence Analysis (September)

As most know by now, consumer confidence in hit an all-time low in October:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index™, which had improved moderately in September, fell to an all-time low in October. The Index now stands at 38.0 (1985=100), down from 61.4 in September. The Present Situation Index decreased to 41.9 from 61.1 last month. The Expectations Index declined to 35.5 from 61.5 in September.
Lets take a deeper look. Putting those responding 'bad or worse' in the numerator and 'good or better' in the denominator we get a new measure we'll call the "Armageddon Index" (higher ratio = more negative). Lets see how this "Armageddon Index" scores in various categories:

After an improved outlook in September, consumers now believe the worst is yet to come.

Source: Conference Board