Quantifying March Madness

BostonSportsHub provides a breakdown of how the NCAA bracket has performed by seed going back to 1997:

The first step in filling out your bracket is to understand the importance of seeding. Unless you are a complete novice to the religion that is March Madness, you know that in general the better the seed, the better the team. There are of course exceptions to this rule. At times the committee loses its mind, but in general the seeding is a fairly accurate representation of the quality of the teams. Here is how the seeds have performed on a round by round basis since 1997.

The results...

Round One: Winning Percentages by Seed

Until you get to the 5 seed, upsets are rare.

Round Two (To the Sweet 16): Winning Percentages by Seed

One seeds rarely lose, but upsets are pretty common two seeds and out

Round Three (To the Elite Eight): Percent that Get Through by Seed

One seeds keep rocking, while a four seed is almost as unlikely as an eight seed to get through.

Round Four (To the Final Four): Percent that Make Up the Final Four

Taking the unlikely "flyer" this far yields minimal results.

So, everyone should just take the #1 seed right? If the goal was to get the least number wrong... sure. BUT, the goal is to outperform everyone else. Which is why your co-worker's eight year old is sure to win your office pool.

Lots of other cool stats over at BostonSportsHub

Update:

For those that really want to geek out, here is a table of all seed matchups going back the last 27 years pulled from mcubed.net.

US / China Tensions Heating Up

On the basketball court that is. ESPN details:

Georgetown's tour through China turned ugly Thursday when a game between the Hoyas and the Bayi Rockets, a Chinese professional team, ended in a bench-clearing brawl.

Mex Carey, Georgetown's sports information director, told ESPN.com that the game was "very physical," with 57 free throws taken by Bayi to just 15 for Georgetown, and quickly spun out of control.

According to the Washington Post, coach John Thompson III pulled his team off the court with the score tied at 64 midway through the fourth quarter after the teams exchanged punches.

Wow!

What is So F'n Funny?

WSJ (hat tip Infectious Greed) details:

Before settling in Sunday for your 10-hour NFL binge, there's a pretty good chance you'll watch the hour-long pregame shows. There's also a pretty good chance you'll notice something slightly odd about their hosts: They never stop laughing.

Source: WSJ

J-E-T-S

My J-E-T-S are dominating, but the most shocking thing about the below chart is that the Arizona Cardinals are 3-2. and the Chargers are 2-3. There must be some sort of investing analogy in this...

Click for Larger Image



Source: ESPN

Bron Bron... a Go Go

After seeing one of the most surreal letters imaginable from a boss to a former employee (in this case Cavs owner Dan Gilbert to NBA superstar Lebron James) is it any wonder he left? Here is a sampling (but imagine this hatred in the form of comic sans, which I guess Dan didn't realize was a font meant for 5 year old birthday cards):

This shocking act of disloyalty from our home grown "chosen one" sends the exact opposite lesson of what we would want our children to learn. And "who" we would want them to grow-up to become.

But the good news is that this heartless and callous action can only serve as the antidote to the so-called "curse" on Cleveland, Ohio.

And he somehow got more childish during a follow up phone interview (via ESPN):

"It's not about him leaving. It's the disrespect. It's time for people to hold these athletes accountable for their actions. Is this the way you raise your children? I've been holding this all in for a long time."

Gilbert said James quit on the Cavs during their second-round series against the Boston Celtics, who rallied from a 2-1 deficit to eliminate Cleveland. "He quit," Gilbert said. "Not just in Game 5, but in Games 2, 4 and 6. Watch the tape.

The Boston series was unlike anything in the history of sports for a superstar."

Good luck not needing to overpay any player by 10% on a going forward basis to play for you Dan!

The best thing about this move (outside of getting to watch one of the best players EVER with teammates who can actually play) has been the reaction I've witnessed from a sampling of friends. New Yorkers have called it a shame for the parity of the game (this mainly coming from Yankees fans!) and former Ohio residents calling him a sell-out (but these former Ohio residents did exactly what he did - they moved for new opportunity, a better job, new environment, and [perhaps] to get away from a disasterous boss).

And they are not alone... Dan's "lesson for Cleveland's children" has been ignored by local residents for 90 years (below is a chart of Cleveland's population and Cleveland's population as a percent of total US population).



Why should this be any different for Lebron, a 25 year old who has lived in the same area his entire life and has the chance to do something different?

Source: InfoPlease

South America World Cup Dominance

I knew the South American teams were playing well, but had no idea this well... The Miami Herald details (bold mine):

Coming into this World Cup, there was much talk about how the winter weather might benefit European teams, and how African teams would be inspired by the fervent support of the continent, the comfort of native cuisine and the familiar sound of the deafening vuvuzelas.

But 10 days into the tournament, European heavyweights are bickering and struggling, most African teams are facing elimination, and it is the fun-loving, fancy-passing South Americans who are dominating with a 7-0-2 record (now 8-0-2 following Chile's 1-0 win) and a 17-4 (now 18-4) scoring edge after Brazil's 3-1 victory against Ivory Coast on Sunday night at Soccer City.

More broadly comparing the two regions of the world...



To my European readers I give you this... it could be worse. You could be host continent and 1-7-4 in the tournament.

Source: ESPN

March Madness Bracket Help

A repost from last year just in time for opening tip off (note the chart does not include games from 2009)...



Source: Bleacher Report

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets

Will this post be relevant for 99% of you? Doubt it, but please tell me there are some Jets fans (or at least NFL fans) who read this blog...

Do the Jets deserve to be in the playoffs?

While there are plenty of critics that state no (to "sneak" into the playoffs they beat the Colts who rested their starters, followed by the Bengals who had already locked up a wild card playoff spot), I believe they do. Having ended the season winners of 5 of 6, they played the Colts tight (a one possession game when the Colts gave up) and blew the Bengals out even when their starters were playing. In addition, over the full course of the season they allowed the least number of points in the league, led the league in total rushing, AND were 7th in the league in point differential (points scored less allowed).

And that relationship (point differential) was a remarkably accurate predictor of teams that would make the playoffs (top 10 all made it).



But, to sums things up lets go to Av Sinesky of The Vertex:

As I walked back to the car after the game, I received an email from my dad. "Cold day in hell arrives," he wrote, ending off a regular season that I had insisted early on would be defined as distinct from those my father had endured. This team with a bold new head coach, a dazzling rookie quarterback, and a tenacious defense, were not my father's Jets. And although they spent much of the season trying to prove me wrong, in the end, they vindicated me. My father's Jets would have been a team that despite leading the league in defense and rushing, would have missed the playoffs. But these Jets made the playoffs despite having a rookie coach and a mistake-prone rookie quarterback and despite having an 0-5 record in games decided by fewer than five points. My father's Jets would have been a team that missed the playoffs despite starting out 3-0; these Jets made the playoffs despite a mediocre 4-6 record heading into the home stretch. My father's Jets would have apologized for a lucky break; these Jets realize they have nothing to be sorry for.

Source: ESPN

Lions Winning Streak at One

ESPN details:

Matthew Stafford held his head down on the bench for the final snap.

Dominic Raiola couldn't watch, either, fearing a 20th loss in a row and 100th setback of his nine-season career.

When Detroit's leaders looked up and saw Washington was out of time, they saw what they were hoping to see Sunday.

Lions 19, Redskins 14.

Believe it.

Finally.

"We not only got the monkey off our back, we got King Kong off our back," said Lions owner William Clay Ford. "I'm hoping that this gets us over that hump and gives us a winning attitude."

Detroit (1-2) hadn't won since Dec. 23, 2007 and its 19-game skid matched the second longest in NFL history. The Lions no longer have to hear about Tampa Bay's record 26-game losing streak.

Source: Football.About

How Many Runs is the U.S. Down and What Inning is It?

This post may seem off topic, but it shows how important it is never to write off the impossible.

Yahoo Sports reports (bold mine):

Victor Martinez lined a two-run single with two outs to cap a seven-run ninth inning as the Cleveland Indians overcame a 10-run deficit to beat the Tampa Bay Rays 11-10 on Monday night.

Now if only the U.S. can show this sort of comeback!

Source: Yahoo

Yankees Economics

Wondering why Yankees seats look empty?

Click for larger image



Source: NY Post via Kottke.org

Watch out Hack Wilson

A little (or a lot) off topic, but the stats Evan Longoria is putting up in 2009 are unreal (for non-baseball fans, Hack Wilson knocked in 191 runs in 1930). Upon Further Review with the details:

It's still too early to talk about things like the fact that Albert Pujols is on pace to hit 59 home runs or Zack Greinke is on pace to go 32-5 with 316 strikeouts, zero home runs allowed and a record-breaking ERA of 0.51. However, there is one fast start that I want to highlight now that we're five weeks into the season: Evan Longoria's 44 RBIs. That puts Longoria on pace to drive in 236 runs this season.

Will Longoria drive in 236 runs? No. But consider this. If Longoria were to maintain a more attainable, but still amazing, pace of 150 RBI/162 games over the course of Tampa Bay's 130 remaining games, he would drive in 120 runs between now and the end of the season. Add the 44 RBIs he already has in his hip pocket, then he'd finish with 164 RBIs. That would be the most since Manny Ramirez's 165 ribbies in 1999.

Source: Yahoo Sports

You Can't Buy a Championship... or Can You?

According to the AP:

The recession has hit baseball salaries.

Teams cut payrolls for their active rosters and disabled lists by $47 million from opening day in 2008 to the first day of this season, according to an analysis by The Associated Press. That comes out to a drop of 1.7 percent.

"Clubs were cautious all winter with regards to the economy and were concerned the economy might have an impact on club revenue," said Bob DuPuy, baseball's chief operating officer. "The spending reflected that for many clubs."

Will the caution these executives exercised affect the play of their respective teams?

Looking at the 2008 winning percentages of teams vs. the level of their current payroll, we do see a relationship (albeit limited, as there are always "Devil Ray" exceptions).

And a similar story (though less differential between the "haves" and the "almost haves") appears to be playing out in this relatively young season.



Source: About.com Baseball

Baseball Franchise Values... Mixed, but Holding Up

Yahoo! Sports with the details:

One-third of Major League Baseball teams declined in value over the past year while the New York Yankees’ worth increased 15 percent to $1.5 billion, according to the annual estimates by Forbes magazine.

The Washington Nationals took the biggest hit during the recession, down 12 percent to $406 million. The Atlanta Braves dropped 10 percent and the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners each were off 9 percent, the magazine said Wednesday.

The decline by 10 teams was the most since 2004, Forbes said.

On the other hand, the rich have gotten richer. Both the Yankees and Mets have seen their franchise values continue to rise.

Bolstered by their new $1.5 billion stadium, the Yankees showed the top increase and remained the most valuable franchise in the majors. The New York Mets, also boosted by a new ballpark, were second in value ($912 million) and increase (11 percent).

Part of the value is due to the revenues these two teams generate (Yankees are king, the Mets are third behind the Red Sox), but they both have 'franchise value to revenue multiples' that are among the highest in the league due to their ability to grow those revenues.



It will be interesting to see how teams hold up through the economic downturn as their businesses, as well as owners are impacted.

Source: Biz of Baseball

Just One of the Guys

Matt Stafford, a "pretty solid" college quarterback based solely on stats (yes, not all college stats are fluffed, so it is possible he is better than those stats) just signed a new contract IN DETROIT FOR 6 YEARS.... 72 MILLION F&CKIN' DOLLARS.

According to the AP:

Detroit desperately needs a quarterback to help turn around the NFL's first 0-16 team, which has had the worst eight-year stretch in the league since World War II, and is turning to Stafford after he was a starter in each of his three seasons at Georgia.

Looking at Matt's new salary compared to the median wage for a variety of industries in the Detroit Metropolitan area, it looks like he'll fit right into the Detroit community.



Ah... the Detroit Lions... one of the only teams (I'll throw Cincinatti and Cleveland in there) that make my J-E-T-S look good. From 0-16 to.... 2-14? At only 175x the salary of the Detroit team doctor, he is WELL worth the money!



But lets looks at the positives... maybe he can throw some of that cash GM or Chrysler's way.

Source: BLS

New Baseball Fields and (Empty) Corporate Boxes

I am a HUGE Mets fan and I was fortunate enough to spend WAY too much money scalping tickets to last night's home opener (which happened to be the first ever regular season game at the new Citi Field). My initial thoughts of the stadium; absolutely beautiful, but it oddly doesn't feel like it was built for the Mets. The all green seats / green wall when the Mets colors are Blue and Orange, plus the new dimensions that actually cost the Mets the game because Ryan Church (the Mets rightfielder) isn't used to the new dimensions of the outfield, all felt slightly off...

Anyhow, the place was PACKED... with one odd exception. As most new ballparks have ridiculously new pricing for the best seats, these best seats now ALL go to... corporations. Yes, I understand this has been a growing trend in recent years, but the pricing discrepancy has moved to a new level with these new stadiums. The result per Ticketnews:

Overall, the Mets raised ticket prices 8.6 percent – against the tide of what many MLB teams have done. According to the just-released April 2009 Major League Baseball Team Marketing Research (TMR), 16 MLB teams either cut, maintained or raised ticket prices by less than 1 percent for 2009. Four others raised ticket prices by less than the MLB average of 5 percent. The Mets average ticket price is $36.99, $10.35 above the MLB average.

This would all be fine if all those clients actually enjoyed baseball and were fans, but lets take these two pictures as proof that they are not. These were both taken in the 7th inning of a 1 run game.

First the upper / nose-bleed seats in right field... packed!




Now the best seats in the house, those right behind the plate...



Unless these fans were dressed like empty seats, they had already taken off. Is it worth it for a non-baseball fan to go out of there way for a ball-game? I have a feeling no, thus we'll see a lot of empty seats going forward...

Absolute Domination Defined...

I am no UNC fan, but I have never seen that dominating a performance throughout a final four.



Source: ESPN

NCAA First Round Winning Percentage by Seed

Source: Bleacher Report

Another Reason to Hate the Yankees

The salary of the highest ten players on the Yankees vs. the highest team payrolls from 2008.

Seems bad... well try this one on. 12 teams had smaller payrolls than the combined salaries of just A-Rod, Sabathia, and Teixeira.

When will they learn that you can't pay for chemistry?

Sources: River Ave Blues / Sports Column

Mets Owner Scammed for $300mm

Apparently Fred Wilpon, owner of MY New York Mets, was involved in the Madoff scam. According to Dealbook (hat tip Dom):

Sterling Equities, the investment firm led by Fred Wilpon that owns the New York Mets baseball team, said Friday that it had accounts at Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities and was “shocked” by his fraud confession.

Sterling Equities may have had as much as $300 million with Madoff, CNBC reported.

Ouch... well at least Forbes shows his investment in the Mets has proven to be more valuable.



And to think... just a few days after the Yankees' owner was ripped off for a little more than $160 million.