Friday, March 4, 2011

EconomPics Turns Three... EconomRIP Edition

Well, its been a full year since EconomPic Turned Two, which means EconomPic turned 3 today (unreal). As many a reader may remember, I begged and pleaded (or at least asked) a year back for help finding a job in San Francisco. After a lot of reader insight, help, and connections... nothing. Apparently there are easier things in life than finding a job 3000 miles away, during a jobless recovery, following a severe recession, when you don't know anyone in that city.

So, finally determined to move I had "the talk" with my "real job" (i.e. I gave my intention to move even if it meant walking away) and guess what? They are open to me (with some interesting arrangements) living in San Francisco after all. Who knew! So after 11 long, great, amazing years in New York City, I am headed west.

Which brings me to EconomPic. From this blogs March 4th, 2008 inception, through one of the more interesting / scary recessions of the past 70-80 years and subsequent rebound, blogging has been a pure joy. It provided me with an outlet to hone my "craft" (what I do here is very applicable to my "real" job) and it's taught me a TON about the world (it provided a huge incentive to "dig" into the data and my readers taught me more over the years than I imagined possible).

BUT, all good things must come to an end.

As long time readers are already well aware, my postings have been WAY down (i.e. lower quantity) and the posts I have done are much less commentary and much more day to day data in chart form (i.e. lower quality from templates I've created over years) the past 3-4 months. This is simply a result of what has been a lack of desire / lack of time to post (the "real" job has been taking up a lot more of my "free" time, the new arrangement will make that much worse). As a result, my three year anniversary seems like an ideal time to bow out. At least for now.

So, while I will not count out coming "out of retirement" if the desire returns or if the economy starts to go a new and interesting direction (or the new working arrangements don't work out), should that not happen I want to take this time to let all my royal readers over the past three years (2300+ RSS subscriber is still shocking) that I will miss you all.


P.S. In the coming weeks, I plan to post a "Table of Contents" that will help direct readers through the 2224 posts (by topic) and data sources

Employment Picture Improved

The economy added 250k jobs per the household survey and 192k per the establishment survey (222k private jobs) on a seasonally adjusted basis. Non-seasonally adjusted, the economy added almost 500k jobs per the household survey and 810k per the establishment survey. Not a blow out, but a definitive improvement.

Source: BLS

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Getting There

I'm expecting an above consensus employment number tomorrow (i.e. 250+), as I think January's employment figure was artificially low due to weather and past data missing the (albeit small) turn.

We shall see...

Source: DOL

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Autos Over the Long Term

4 years later we're making some real progress in the economy across the board, but showing how deep the dive was... auto sales are still ~20% below the level seen four years ago.

More telling. Lots of US autos near the bottom and only one (Cadillac) with more sales than pre-crisis.

Source: Autoblog

Nothing is Sacred

In a recession (the below is year over year change using January prints)...

Source: Census

Manufacturing Expands at Fastest Pace Since 1983

ISM respondents are saying:
  • "A continued weak dollar is increasing the cost of components purchased overseas. It is going to force us to increase our selling prices to our customers." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "We continue to see significant inflation across nearly every type of chemical raw material we purchase." (Chemical Products)
  • "Our plants are working 24/7 to meet production demands." (Fabricated Metal Products)
    "Prices continue to rise, while business limps along at last year's pace." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
  • "Overall demand is off 10 percent." (Plastics & Rubber Products)

Source: ISM