Thursday, March 12, 2009

How Can an 8.6% Drop in Retail Sales be a Positive News Alert?

Marketwatch reports:

Retail sales dropped 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, better than the 0.4% decline expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. January's sales gain was revised much higher, to a 1.8% gain from the 1% increase estimated a month ago. Sales are down 8.6% in the past year and had declined for a record six straight months before January's surprising gain. Sales had plunged 3.1% in December.
While certainly not pretty...

The second derivative is turning positive (i.e. things are getting "less worse")...

And that is something we can all get behind...

Source: Census


  1. Or it could just be a dead bounce in a long decline...

  2. There has been so much spin and BS in the press lately about the "second derivative" and improving conditions.

    There are at least three reasons why these statements about the second derivative are showing the speaker's ignorance, but I'll spare you that.

    However, it there is really anything to these "improving conditions," I challenge you to show us the data instead of "talking your book."

  3. Anon - that seems to be the data right there. Not sure what the data you want to see is.

    How about you give your 'three the speakers ignorance' instead of claiming they exist.

    If you read this blog at all you would know it doesn't cow toe to the press.