The Politics of Global Warming

File this under the "what the what" section. Yahoo reports:

Just 57 percent think there is solid evidence the world is getting warmer, down 20 points in just three years, a new poll says. And the share of people who believe pollution caused by humans is causing temperatures to rise has also taken a dip, even as the U.S. and world forums gear up for possible action against climate change.

Odd timing... or is it?

The steepest drop has occurred during the past year, as Congress and the Obama administration have taken steps to control heat-trapping emissions for the first time and international negotiations for a new treaty to slow global warming have been under way. At the same time, there has been mounting scientific evidence of climate change -- from melting ice caps to the world's oceans hitting the highest monthly recorded temperatures this summer.

Hmmm.... so when Obama starts to take steps to control emissions, the broader public changes their opinion. My initial thought was that this can't POSSIBLY because climate change is in any way a political issue (well, we all know about Republican's and energy, but that was always under the guise that the cost of doing something outweighs the benefits, but the FACTS are pretty clear)... right? Wrong.

So how has the Republican party made their case? Using research from the EPA? Nope. The EPA believes humans have impacted our climate. So what is it? Apparently Minority Leader John Boehner's "cow farts" theory from April is getting some traction.

If CO2 is the culprit, then why did God create farting cows?

Minority Leader John Boehner described the overwhelming scientific consensus that carbon dioxide is contributing to climate change as "comical" during an appearance on Sunday, noting that cow flatulence contributes CO2 to the environment all the time...

"The idea that carbon dioxide is a carcinogen that is harmful to our environment is almost comical," said Boehner. "Every time we exhale, we exhale carbon dioxide. Every cow in the world, you know when they do what they do you've got more carbon dioxide."

And the results per Environment Magazine:

While more than three-fourths of Democrats (76 percent) believe global warming is already happening, only 42 percent of Republicans share that view in 2008.

Un-friggin believable.

Source: Yahoo

IMF: Negative Global Growth for First Time Since WWII

Voice of America reports:

The IMF says the world economy will shrink by 1.3 percent this year, its worst performance in more than 60 years. It says recovery is expected to begin only at the end of the year and that growth will recover to only 1.9 percent in 2010. Blanchard says there has been unprecedented contraction in recent months.

"The collapse of demand has led to sharp cutbacks in production and a dramatic decline in exports. Global GDP went down by an unprecedented six percent, at an annual rate, in the last quarter of 2008. And, as far as we can tell, most likely declined almost as fast in the first quarter of 2009," he said.

Source: IMF

Cargo Plane Traffic... Crash

IATA reports (hat tip Calculated Risk):

In the month of December global international cargo traffic plummeted by 22.6%compared to December 2007. The same comparison for international passenger traffic showed a 4.6% drop. The international load factor stood at 73.8%. For the full-year 2008, international cargo traffic was down 4.0%, passenger traffic showed a modest increase of 1.6%, and the international load factor stood at 75.9%.

“The 22.6% free fall in global cargo is unprecedented and shocking. There is no clearer description of the slowdown in world trade. Even in September 2001, when much of the global fleet was grounded, the decline was only 13.9%,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO.” Air cargo carries 35% of the value of goods traded internationally.

I don't want to about global decoupling for at least 5 years...

Japanese Equities Look Cheap, but Does that Matter?

How bad has it been for Japanese equities? Down 50% since last July and approaching 25 year low bad. However, Felix over at Portfolio.com takes the glass half full view:

The plight of Japanese shareholders is germane to anybody thinking of buying stocks today. Japan's companies are well-run, and its financial institutions, as we saw with the MUFG deal, are today more part of the solution than they are part of the problem.

Yet he does warn that cheap doesn't necessarily equal opportunity.

Which is not to say that Japanese stocks are a screaming buy right now, but which is to say that if you think that stocks in the US are cheap, maybe you could look across the Pacific and find some equally-attractive assets which are even cheaper. Or, to put it another way, the lesson of Japan is that even cheap stocks can continue to decline for decades.

Global Equity Markets Roar...

Source: Investment Postcards

$1.7 MILLION DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NATION’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND AFFORDABLE

That $1.7mm difference is almost as large as the gap we see between some of the richest and poorest markets in the world...

Source: Coldwell Bankers HT (Infectious Greed)

World Wide Write-Downs

$474 million in write-downs to date and counting. This will be the last write-down related chart until we see another. In other words, stay tuned...

Source: Credit Writedowns

World Equity Returns as of 7/18/08

Go to Investment Postcards for all the data...