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Thursday, May 19, 2011

Leading Indicators Turn Negative in April

Bloomberg details:

The index of U.S. leading indicators fell in April after nine months of gains, depressed by a pickup in jobless claims that reflects temporary setbacks including auto-plant shutdowns.

The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months decreased 0.3 percent after a revised 0.7 percent gain in March, the New York-based group said today. Economists forecast a 0.1 percent increase, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.
The chart below shows the broader concern of what will happen to the US economy when the Fed is no longer as accommodating as they have been with monetary easing (low interest rates + QE + QEII). Excluding those levers they can pull, leading indicators were down 0.65 month to month.



Source: Conference Board