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Friday, April 16, 2010

What Housing Overbuild?

My earlier post regarding housing permits got me thinking... how do the permit figures compare historically on a per capita basis? I understand this isn't perfect as this is a flow (new houses added) vs. stock (total existing houses), but it was pretty surprising to me.

Surprising in that the bubble build quite frankly doesn't look that huge and surprising that we are now at extreme lows.

And vs. the 50 year average of 0.000495 permits per capita (in the chart below, the zero line is equal to the 0.000495 level).

Is it possible we'll go from an overbuild to a shortage within a 5-10 year period?

Source: Census