Marketwatch reports:
Leading U.S. economic indicators increased 1.1% in December and have risen for nine straight months, suggesting "that the pace of improvement could pick up this spring," according to a report released by the Conference Board on Thursday. The rise in the leading index was stronger than the 0.7% increase expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Eight of the 10 leading indicators improved in December, a broad-based gain that points to "an economy in early recovery," said Ken Goldstein, an economist for the Conference Board, a private research organization.
Source: Conference Board
How can this conference board have any credibility at all? Most people will look at the report and say, "great, we are on the road to prosperity!" But compare December to last September or last June and see that those months only showed one negative indicator each, yet we were shedding jobs like crazy and nearly every other economic chart was pointing down, down, down.
ReplyDeleteIt would be interesting to see these indicators on a longer time scale to see if they have ever been able to successfully predict a climb out of recession.
NewCreature
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I would argue something different. Mainly that these indicators are all improving, but in most cases solely due to government stimulus that is rolling off. Thus, these indicators will mark a great GDP print, but an unsustainable recovery.
ReplyDeleteJake,
ReplyDeleteI agree and now it is becoming a real question whether the political will is going to be there for more stimulus measures. Mayeb we will have to face the music after all?
sure seems that way
ReplyDeleteAll of this adds up to a "Jobs Boom" in the 100K range for 2011-12.
ReplyDeletenice post. thanks.
ReplyDeleteJohn- that would be an EXTREMELY poor number after this downturn. Heck, we need almost 200k jobs per month just to keep up with population growth.
ReplyDelete