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Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Pointing to More Muddle

Modern Distribution Management with the nice recap of yesterday's release (traveling all week so expect some untimely posts):

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was -0.90 in August, down from -0.56 in July. Three of the four broad categories of indicators made negative contributions to the CFNAI in August; the production and income category made a positive contribution to the index for the second consecutive month.

The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, improved for the seventh consecutive month. At -1.09 in August (up from -1.61 in the previous month), the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, the amount of economic slack reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 indicates low inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.

The production-related indicators made a smaller positive contribution of 0.29 to the index in August compared with 0.45 in July. Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in August, down slightly from 1.0 percent in the previous month; and manufacturing production increased 0.6 percent in August after rising 1.4 percent in July. July and August marked the first consecutive increases in industrial production since November and December 2007.

For more on the linkage between the rolling three-month figure and GDP go here.

Source: Chicago Fed