EconomPic
Friday, July 27, 2012

GDP Expands 1.5% in Q2

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Bloomberg details: The U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace in the second quarter as a softening job market prompted Americans to curb sp...
Thursday, July 19, 2012

Leading Economic Indicators Decline by Most Since Last September

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Bloomberg details: The index of U.S. leading economic indicators fell more than forecast in June, a sign the U.S. economic expansion is slo...
Monday, July 9, 2012

Consumer Credit Jumps... a Good Thing?

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Bloomberg details: Consumer credit climbed more than forecast in May, led by the biggest jump in credit-card debt in almost five years that...
3 comments:
Friday, July 6, 2012

Gaming the System... Disability Edition

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In my post outlining the decline in employment (excluding teens), reader Mike pointed out another interesting phenomenon: One of the storie...
8 comments:

Employment (Excluding Teen Hires) Turns Negative

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Peter Boockvar provides details of the ugly job report: June Payrolls totaled 80,000, 20,000 less than expected and well below the ADP whis...
2 comments:
Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Breaking Down Volatility of the VIX

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I had never heard of the VVIX index (the volatility of the stock market's volatility "volatility of VIX ") until a week back...
Monday, July 2, 2012

Common Investor Errors...

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Early last week, Barry Ritholtz outlined what he believed were the top ten most common investor errors: Here is my short list: 1. High Fees...
Sunday, July 1, 2012

(Almost) All Assets up in the First Half

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Despite a volatile second quarter, risk assets (actually all assets with the exception of commodities) performed quite well in the first hal...
Wednesday, June 27, 2012

More on Corporate Profits

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Back in September of last year, I showed this chart outlining that corporate profits as a percent of GDP were approaching a three-standard ...
16 comments:
Thursday, June 21, 2012

Leading Indicators Up in May

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Marketwatch reports: The risk of a downturn in the second half of this year is relatively low, the Conference Board said Thursday as it rep...
1 comment:
Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Fed's Ugly Forecasts

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Over the past two months, the Fed's FOMC has: Reduced forecasts for growth in 2012, 2013, and 2014 Increased expectations of unemployme...
Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Financial vs. Capital Expenditures and Equities

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Yesterday, I made a bullish case for equities over the long run (especially when compared to bonds), today I will outline one of the reason...
4 comments:
Monday, June 18, 2012

Valuation Matters.... Equity vs Bonds Edition

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I've shown that valuation matters numerous times over the years when it comes to long-term equity returns (see here , here , and here f...
2 comments:
Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Retail Sales Sluggish

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BusinessWeek details: U.S. retail sales declined in April and May, pulled down by a sharp drop in gas prices. But even after excluding vola...
2 comments:
Monday, June 11, 2012

The End of the Middle Class

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The NY Times details: The recent economic crisis left the median American family in 2010 with no more wealth than in the early 1990s, erasi...
Thursday, June 7, 2012

Drop the Inflation Concerns

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As I've outlined before , wages tend to be the one of the better predictors of inflation (or deflation) out there as wages tend to be ve...
Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Dividend vs. Treasury Yields

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The dividend yield of the S&P 500 is above that of the ten year Treasury for the first time since the financial crisis. Before that we h...
Monday, June 4, 2012

Europe's Core / Periphery Imbalances Going Parabolic

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George Soros ' recent speech on what created the Euro bubble (and how it will need to play out) is making the rounds (although he delete...
1 comment:
Thursday, May 31, 2012

Put Selling as a Replacement For Stocks

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The higher that market implied volatility becomes, the more attractive put selling (as a replacement to being long stocks) becomes. The ch...

First Quarter GDP Revised Down to 1.9%

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Marketwatch details: The U.S. economy ran into a deeper soft patch in the first quarter than initially estimated, a government report showe...
Wednesday, May 30, 2012

What Happened to the Great Bond Sell-Off?

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It's amazing that it was only a bit more than two months ago that I wrote this post defending bonds against what was labeled the "...
1 comment:
Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Existing Home Sales Rise Across the Board

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While the overall level of existing home sales is still well below the bubble peak (4.62 million vs. 7+ million in mid-2005), the trend is p...
3 comments:
Thursday, May 17, 2012

Leading Economic Indicators Turn Negative

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Source: Conference Board
Tuesday, May 15, 2012

(U.S.) Relative Strength

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Despite the recent turmoil, unlike when I showed this chart last August (a time when the dollar was selling off and gold / commodities were...
1 comment:

Checking in on Inflation

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Marketwatch details: Inflationary pressures are fading, just as Federal Reserve officials expected. But don’t think that the decline in the...
Friday, May 11, 2012

EconomPics Recap

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I just came to the realization that I haven't had an EconomPic recap since March 9th, so here goes: Economic Data Trade Deficit Blow Out...
Thursday, May 10, 2012

Trade Deficit Blow Out

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Remember when we thought the U.S. was going to export our way back to prosperity riding European and emerging market aggregate demand (that ...
Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Stocks for the Long Run?

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While the below chart cherry picks one of the best performing fixed income sectors, it is still pretty amazing. Bonds (defined in this examp...
4 comments:
Monday, May 7, 2012

The Consumer is Back... Consumer Credit Positive (Even Excluding Student Loans)

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SF Gate details: Consumer borrowing in the U.S. surged in March by the most in more than a decade on growing demand for educational financi...
3 comments:
Friday, May 4, 2012

Ugliest Employment Chart You'll See?

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Per Felix Salmon : As Mike Konczal noted this morning, a key indicator of labor recession is still in force: if you’re unemployed, you’re s...
5 comments:

Employment Market Continues to Muddle Along

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The NY Times details: The nation’s employers added 115,000 positions on net, after adding 154,000 in March. April’s job growth was less tha...
Tuesday, May 1, 2012

When Leverage Attacks

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The real estate market is certainly heating up in the San Francisco, my new city, despite the broader Case Shiller Home Index still hoverin...
3 comments:
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