The U.S. index of leading economic indicators rose 0.7% in June, the Conference Board said Monday. This is the third straight monthly increase. The rise was slightly larger than the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists, who had expected a 0.5% rise. The gain is not as strong as the last two months. The index rose 1.0% in April and 1.3% in May. In the latest month, the coincident index fell 0.2%, while the lagging index fell 0.7%.
A closer look at the monthly (and last six months) breakdown.
Source: Conference Board
Kasriel at Northern Trust has done some interesting work comparing YoY changes in the LEI to GDP though not recently. That might be worth a looksee if you get a chance and have the data. What really struck me though was you % change over a year where the biggest factor was money supply. The problem with statistics is that they presume a static relationship holds true. In this case I stopped tracking monetary indicators last summer because of the ginormous increase in the Fed's balance sheet which destroyed all the historical relationships I'd bee relying on. Hmmm...what what the LEI-Money would look like ?
ReplyDeleteThe economy has to recover at some stage. Most likely towards the end of the year.
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