Monday, March 22, 2010

Chicago Fed National Activity Declines in February

Reuters details what the index shows:
Zero values in the index indicate a national economy expanding at historical trends, while negative values indicate below-trend growth and positive values signal growth above trend, the Chicago Fed said. The 85 economic indicators that comprise the Chicago Fed's index are drawn from four categories: production and income; employment, unemployment and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders and inventories. The three-month moving average provides a more consistent picture of national economic growth compared to the more volatile monthly index.
And the three month average fell to -0.64 in February from -0.04 in January (i.e. below trend growth).



Source: Chicago Fed

2 comments:

  1. The double dip was "inconceivable" I thought? I guess that word does not mean what we think it does.

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  2. the negative number is slightly misleading. this indicates below trend growth vs. outright contraction.

    not good news for the bulls expecting 5% this year, but i don't see a double dip... yet.

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