Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Swap Curve Whacked

At a very basic level, interest rate swaps allow the exchange of a fixed rate for a floating rate across maturities. When viewed in the form of a swap curve (below), we can see what the market is pricing in for this fixed for floating across maturities, similar to a Treasury curve (i.e. the level in which you can get paid over various maturities on one side, while paying 3-month LIBOR on the other).

Below we see the swap curve at spot (i.e. current levels) and what the market is pricing in one, three, five, and ten years into the future.

What is the below chart showing?

1) The swap curve is currently steep, though not as steep as the Treasury curve (as long swaps are currently trading well through Treasuries)
2) The market is pricing in rates to rise rather dramatically at the front-end of the yield curve over the next five to ten years (though not much at all over the next 12 months)
3) The yield curve is actually inverted at the very long-end as early as three years out

Why? For one, investors that were underweight (or short) duration got themselves caught majorly off-guard over the course of the past few weeks as the long-end has taken a cliff-dive and now need duration at any cost.




Source: Bloomberg
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5 comments:

  1. AnonymousAugust 17, 2010 at 3:14 PM

    sure wish i knew what the heck this was all about

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  2. JaredAugust 18, 2010 at 12:36 AM

    The yield curve is the relationship between the interest rate (or cost of borrowing) and the time to maturity of the debt for a given borrower in a given currency. For example, the U.S. dollar interest rates paid on U.S. Treasury securities for various maturities are closely watched by many traders, and are commonly plotted on a graph such as the one on the right which is informally called "the yield curve."

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  3. AnonymousAugust 18, 2010 at 5:55 AM

    i don't understand the last sentence... what does it mean by underweight duration?

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousAugust 18, 2010 at 6:05 AM

    It always helps to label BOTH axes.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousAugust 18, 2010 at 6:34 AM

    Long dated forwards are computed using illiquid (on swaps) or non-existent (in treasuries) points on the curve. I would not read much into forwards computed with >30yr points on either curve...

    ReplyDelete