One sign of better economic times is when more people start finding jobs. Another is when they feel confident enough to quit them.Before we shout "recovery", we need to review the data. Are layoffs now below quits? Indeed, they are. But the level of quits is still WAY down.
More people quit their jobs in the past three months than were laid off - a sharp reversal after 15 straight months in which layoffs exceeded voluntary departures. The trend suggests the job market is finally thawing.
Some of the quitters are leaving for new jobs. Others have no firm offers. But their newfound confidence about landing work is itself evidence of more hiring and a strengthening economy.
"There is a century's worth of evidence that bears out this view that quits rise and layoffs fall as the job market improves," said Steven Davis, an economist at the University of Chicago.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
I'm Outta Here!
CBS News details:
It would be interesting to trend this against the total labor force. While the level quits is still down, it looks as though layoffs are going to trend well below the long term average as well.
ReplyDeleteall the "low hanging fruit" layoffs have been done. the workforce is extremely lean. if the economy continues to improve, this should equate to increased hiring.
ReplyDeleteif the companies that I and my SO work at are any indication - and I believe they are, as I have similar anecdotes from friends and associates - companies cut too much. They cut so much they can't increase output right now because people are overworked to the max (white collar here, salaried, which means long weeks).
ReplyDeleteFurthermore, internal politics and fear have so decimated hiring channels that even though both our companies are realizing they need staff and opening up positions left and right, the hiring managers and HR are so dysfunctional (as compared to 4 years ago) that they can hardly get candidates through the process, and invariably by the time they do finally get it done, the candidate has just accepted another offer elsewhere.
We had an offer turned down just today. The hiring manager took too long to commit.
It's going to take more months before the survivors feel safe and stop sandbagging potential hires out of replacement fear. Maybe in 2011 things will really get going again.